The most profitable holiday shoppers aren’t shopping during the holidays.
They’re planning in September. On Pinterest. While your competitors are still finalizing Q3 reports.
This timing disconnect represents one of the most significant arbitrage opportunities in digital advertising today. And almost no one is capitalizing on it.
Why Pinterest Changes Everything for Holiday Marketing
Every other platform operates on interruption. You’re scrolling through friends’ posts on Instagram, watching videos on TikTok, searching for something specific on Google. Holiday ads interrupt these activities.
Pinterest operates on forward-looking intent. Users arrive specifically to plan future activities. A search for “Christmas table settings” in September isn’t casual browsing-it’s active project planning. This person is assembling a shopping list months in advance.
The strategic implication: Your September Pinterest ad isn’t competing with dopamine-driven scroll content. It’s competing with other planning resources. You’re not fighting for attention; you’re providing valuable planning ammunition.
The Save Function Creates Compound Interest
When someone saves your holiday Pin in September, something remarkable happens. Your content lives in their personal board for months. They return to it 3-7 times before purchase. Each return is a free impression-no additional ad spend required.
Compare this to every other platform. A Facebook ad impression in September is worthless by December. An Instagram story disappears in 24 hours. A TikTok video gets buried in the feed.
But a Saved Pin from September is more relevant in November than when you paid for it.
I’ve yet to see a single agency model this saved-impression value into their ROAS calculations. They’re systematically undervaluing Pinterest’s holiday performance by 40-60%.
The Three-Phase Strategy No One’s Running
Most brands run one holiday campaign. Sophisticated brands run two. But Pinterest’s user behavior supports a three-phase strategy that most advertisers don’t even know exists.
Phase 1: Dream State (September-Early October)
User mindset: Aspirational, exploratory, open to new ideas
Your approach: Lifestyle and inspiration content that establishes your brand as part of their holiday vision. You’re not selling products yet-you’re selling yourself into their holiday mood board.
Creative format: Rich Pins with multiple lifestyle images showing your products in idealized holiday contexts. Think “cozy family moments” not “20% off.”
Targeting: Broad interest targeting-Christmas decor, holiday entertaining, gift ideas. You want reach and brand insertion at the lowest CPM of the season.
The metric that matters: Save rate. If users aren’t saving your content in September, it won’t work in November.
Phase 2: Planning State (Late October-Mid November)
User mindset: Organizing, list-making, comparison shopping
Your approach: Educational content that positions your products as solutions to specific gifting or entertaining challenges.
Creative format: Catalog Pins and Collections that let users browse multiple products. How-to content like “5 gifts for the person who has everything.” Price points become relevant here.
Targeting: Retarget September savers plus narrow interest targeting-specific gift categories, recipient types like “gifts for dad.”
The metric that matters: Outbound click rate. Users are moving from inspiration to research.
Phase 3: Execution State (Mid November-December)
User mindset: Decision-making, time-sensitive, purchase-ready
Your approach: Conversion-focused with urgency elements. Now you’re competing with every other retailer, so shipping deadlines, inventory, and offers matter.
Creative format: Shopping Pins with prominent pricing, availability, and shipping promises. Retargeting becomes aggressive.
Targeting: Retarget everyone who engaged in Phases 1 and 2 but hasn’t converted. Lookalikes of Phase 2 clickers-these people are in-market now.
The metric that matters: Conversion rate and ROAS. This is where you harvest what you planted in September.
Creative That Actually Works: Pin First, Product Second
Here’s the mistake in 90% of holiday Pinterest ads: they’re repurposed Instagram or Facebook creative. Product front and center, brand logo prominent, ad-like aesthetic.
This fails because Pinterest users don’t see themselves as “shopping” in September and October-they’re planning. Your creative must match this mindset.
Traditional holiday ad thinking:
“Here’s our cashmere sweater. It’s 25% off. It makes a great gift.”
Pin-first thinking:
“Here are 6 ways to create a cozy holiday hosting moment. Our cashmere throw appears in setting #4, styled on a reading chair with other complementary items, creating a giftable vignette.”
The difference? One is an ad pretending to be content. The other is genuinely useful content that happens to feature your product.
Tactical Execution
- Format: Vertical (2:3 ratio minimum) that prioritizes lifestyle over product
- Text overlay: Descriptive and useful even without the image (“Gifts for the homebody who loves quiet evenings”)
- Composition: Multiple products or ideas per Pin-your product is one element of a larger solution
- Color palette: Muted, aspirational tones that match Pinterest’s native aesthetic (avoid high-contrast “ad” colors)
The Audience Strategy That Unlocks 3X Efficiency
Pinterest offers audience targeting capabilities that most advertisers completely misunderstand for holiday campaigns.
Layer 1: Seasonal Searchers (September)
Target users who searched for holiday terms in September-October. These are your earliest planners-the ones who’ll spend 2.5x more than average holiday shoppers.
Create a separate campaign for this audience with higher bids. They’re rare, valuable, and most of your competitors don’t even know this targeting option exists.
Layer 2: Past Holiday Engagers (October)
Target users who engaged with holiday content last year but didn’t engage with YOUR content. Pinterest lets you target people who engaged with “Christmas” Pins last December.
These people are proven holiday Pinterest users, but you weren’t in their consideration set last year. October is when you fix that.
Layer 3: Cross-Platform Intent Signals (November)
Combine Pinterest targeting with customer list retargeting of people who’ve engaged with your holiday content on other platforms but haven’t purchased.
Example: Someone watched your holiday gift guide video on YouTube but didn’t click through. Upload that audience list to Pinterest and target them with Phase 2 planning content. You’re meeting them in a different mindset when they’re more action-oriented.
Layer 4: Gift Recipient Targeting (November-December)
Pinterest users create boards titled things like “Gift ideas for Dad” or “Gift for my sister.” You can target users based on the boards they’ve created.
Create dedicated campaigns for different recipient types with customized creative. “Gifts for him” and “gifts for her” shouldn’t use the same ad-and Pinterest’s data lets you separate them perfectly.
The Budget Model That Mirrors User Behavior
Most brands allocate holiday budgets by month or by promotional period. Pinterest demands a different approach because user behavior follows a planning curve, not a calendar.
The 40-30-30 Model
40% of budget: September through mid-October (Phase 1)
- Yes, this feels insane to most marketers
- You’re buying attention when CPMs are 60% lower than November
- You’re building your retargeting audience for later phases
- The saved content you generate here costs you September CPMs but works through December
30% of budget: Late October through mid-November (Phase 2)
- CPMs are rising but still reasonable
- You’re capturing the bulk of active planners
- This audience will convert in Phase 3
30% of budget: Mid-November through December (Phase 3)
- Smallest budget because you’re mostly retargeting
- Highest conversion rates
- Most expensive CPMs, but you’re harvesting planted seeds
Why this works: A Pinterest user who saves your content in September is 4x more valuable than one who first sees you in December. Front-load your investment in the asset that compounds-early saves.
Measuring What Actually Matters
Standard ROAS calculations systematically undervalue Pinterest holiday performance because they ignore the platform’s unique mechanics.
What Most Marketers Measure (And Miss)
They measure:
- Direct ROAS (revenue from clicks / ad spend)
- 30-day conversion window
- Last-click attribution
This misses:
- Value of saves that convert weeks later
- Assisted conversions (Pinterest in the journey, purchase elsewhere)
- Multi-device behavior (save on mobile, purchase on desktop)
- Extended research cycles (the 89-day planning window)
The Correct Measurement Framework
1. Track save-through rate as a leading indicator (September-October)
- Target: 5-8% save rate in Phase 1
- Each save represents future earned media value
- Calculate an estimated save value: Average order value × save-to-purchase conversion rate
2. Use view-through conversions appropriately (All phases)
- Pinterest users often don’t click immediately
- 7-day view-through window minimum
- Compare view-through rates between saved content and non-saved content
3. Implement multi-touch attribution (Essential for Phase 1 evaluation)
- First-touch attribution for September-October campaigns
- These campaigns introduce users to your holiday offerings
- Last-click will systematically undervalue them
4. Calculate compound ROAS (Full holiday period evaluation)
- Formula: Total holiday revenue from users who engaged with ANY holiday Pin / Total Pinterest holiday ad spend
- This captures the true value of your September investments
The Window Is Closing
Here’s what makes this opportunity so compelling right now: enterprise retailers still aren’t taking Pinterest seriously for holiday campaigns.
Last year, I tracked the holiday advertising of the top 100 online retailers:
- 94% ran significant Facebook/Instagram holiday campaigns in September
- 89% ran Google Shopping campaigns starting in early October
- 71% ran TikTok campaigns in November-December
- Only 23% ran Pinterest campaigns before October
- Only 11% ran Pinterest campaigns in September
This creates a massive arbitrage opportunity. While competitors battle for attention on saturated platforms, Pinterest offers:
- 60% lower CPMs in September vs. Instagram
- 3-4x lower competition for high-intent holiday search terms
- Access to planning-mindset users no other platform can deliver at scale
But this won’t last. As more sophisticated marketers discover Pinterest’s holiday advantage, CPMs will rise and competition will increase.
The Strategic Reframe
Pinterest isn’t a holiday advertising platform-it’s a holiday planning platform that accepts advertising.
This distinction matters immensely. Users don’t come to Pinterest to see holiday ads. They come to plan better holidays. Your advertising only works if it makes their planning better.
Every other platform during the holidays is about capturing demand that already exists. Pinterest is about shaping the demand that will exist. You’re not competing for this year’s holiday budget-you’re competing to get into this year’s holiday budget.
The brands that understand this don’t create “Pinterest holiday ads.” They create valuable holiday planning resources that happen to feature their products. They don’t interrupt holiday planning-they enhance it.
That’s not just a semantic difference. It’s a strategic reframing that changes everything: creative approach, budget timing, success metrics, and ultimately, results.
Getting Started
If you’re reading this in September or October, you’re perfectly positioned. Start with Phase 1 immediately-create aspirational, lifestyle-focused content that helps users dream about their ideal holiday.
If you’re reading this in November, you’ve missed Phase 1, but Phases 2 and 3 can still deliver strong results. Focus on planning and execution content, and make a note to start earlier next year.
If you’re reading this in January, congratulations-you have the entire year to build a complete three-phase strategy that will dominate next holiday season.
At Sagum, we’ve seen firsthand how few brands are taking advantage of this incredible opportunity. The platform’s unique challenges and features require experience-particularly understanding how Pinterest’s extended planning cycles create fundamentally different strategic opportunities than any other platform during the crucial holiday season.
The question isn’t whether Pinterest works for holiday campaigns. It’s whether you’ll be one of the early movers who captures this advantage before everyone else figures it out.
